Posts

Eurasia connectivity and potential risks for the BRI and INSTC.

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The war in Ukraine caused the rejection of the Western world towards Russia, who was disconnected from the financial system dominated by the West, its reserves abroad were confiscated, and it finds itself in a war against NATO in Ukraine that it does not dare to be declared. The explosion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is not an accident and it seeks to cut Russia's remaining ties with Europe, both in energetic and economical terms. Also, although the recent order issued against President Putin by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague will have no relevant effect on the global conflict, it is another tool in the information war and also seeks to cut Russia's remaining ties with Europe, this time in the legal and propaganda level. Motivated by the explosion of Nord Stream 2, a Russian-European infrastructure project, I propose to take a look at other infrastructure projects in Eurasia and pay attention to potential risks of sabotage or destabilization. In partic

The Islamic Spring: The Saudi Arabia-Iran deal, mediated by China.

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Rapid changes are taking place in the current era of conflict between unipolarity and multipolarity. NATO is waging a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine while its leading power, the United States, is also engaging in a commercial confrontation with China amid speeches that gradually increase the tension. In a spontaneous way, countries either tend to align with one of the two sides, or seek to maintain neutrality, or show some strategic ambiguity. Thus, the countries of the Western bloc plus some Asian countries such as Japan form an Atlanticist bloc, while the opposite bloc, the Eurasian one, is rapidly organizing itself and evolving. In this way, the region comprising the countries of West Asia (Middle East) will also resonate during the conflict between NATO and the Russia-China axis. Indeed, the Arab world and the Persian world form a region of great relevance in Asia: In cultural terms, these blocs are the center of the Muslim world, and represents Sunnis and Shiites. In trading

The International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC)

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One of the keys to the growth of the Middle East and the Central Asia regions beyond the oil trade are infrastructure projects and commodity trade routes. Coalitions like the BRICS have been strengthening the Eurasian region while connecting trade routes between Eurasia, Africa, and South America. The BRICS form a solid economic bloc in development that concentrates more than 40% of the world's population and approximately 25% of global GDP seeking cooperation and joint development of the bloc and its region as a counterweight to the pressure and destabilization from western coalitions and blocs. In addition, the BRICS seek to have some financial independence, with the New Development Bank (as an alternative to the World Bank), and economic independence, with possible trade routes, summits for emerging economies, and an informal preference for treatment among BRICS countries. Thus, driven primarily by China (the BRICS' main economic and financial power), that is und

Lithium: The white gold of the XXI century (Part 1: The arrival of the lithium-boom)

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In the same way that oil was called the "black gold" of the XX century and is remains to be a highly profitable material nowadays, the lithium points to be the "white gold" of the XXI century. While the oil is a hydrocarbon (carbon and hydrogen compound) whose main use is the transport, since it is able to be used in a chemical process known as combustion and turns out to be really helpful in human life, the lithium principal use is actually the electric batteries. Compared to the typical batteries, the lithium batteries can be charged faster, they have a longer discharge time and a better efficiency. If we add to this that the lithium extraction and batteries fabrication can be not too costly, then this turns lithium into a highly profitable material. The lithium electric batteries are present in electronic products used in our daily life, such as laptops and smartphones. Multinational corporations that develop and promote the green agenda at a worldwide level expe

World civilizations and projections (Part 3: Language)

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An essential aspect that we are missing to talk about and that also characterizes a civilization is the language. The important point is that language is the way of people to communicate and to understand to each other, and the religion is the inner believe, customs and way of living of people. Also, if we analyze a group of people through a timeline, there are features in this group of people that evolve faster than others, there are also features that are just ephemeral. For example, the economic wealth is not something that defines a civilization in a proper way. Throughout the years we have had different empires who have experienced periods of high and low wealth. For instance, we cannot compare the chinese economy 100 years ago with the current economic "boom" they are living right now. Hence, economic wealth is a volatile or unstable feature that seems to be part of other geopolitical aspects such as the economic model or the way of government. In the same way, features

World civilizations and projections (Part 2: Religion)

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Figure 1: Map shared by former President of Russia, Dmitri Medvédev in his official telegram channel. The map shows a prediction by Medvédev towards the end of the Special Military Operation (SMO): A split Ukraine where there is a Western non-Orthodox side absorbed by Poland, a residual central Ukraine with Kiev at the center, and an oriental side with Orthodox nature now part of Russia. In this post I continue the last discussion about the different world civilizations. Before we focused in demography, but civilizations as you would notice, are highly represented by two major ingredients: The religion and the language. Perhaps, religion might be, the most important feature of what defines a world civilization. Already in 1996, S. Huntington wrote in the first pages of his famous book The clash of civilizations ,  that using old paradigms one could expect that Russia was going to eventually be attacked by Ukraine, because of a possible threat and that Ukraine was going to be conquered